Overview of CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast of Discharges and Return Periods

Updated on Thursday May 2, 2024

Early this week was relatively warm across the province. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) forecasts that temperatures over the province will rise into the weekend and then drop early next week and then rise again. Light rainfall or isolated showers are expected for the next 10-days. Rivers in the province are currently running at levels below the 1-year return period. Based on these conditions, the CLEVER Model forecasts that most rivers across the province are expected to rise steadily but still below the 1-year return period levels for the weekend into next week.

Numerical Output of the CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast:
  1. The Fraser Basin: Upper Fraser and Nechako; Middle Fraser and Quesnel; Thompson and Nicola; and, Lower Fraser.
  2. North and Central Coasts: Northwest; Skeena-Nass; and Central Coast.
  3. Northeast and Peace: Liard and Northeast; and Peace Region.
  4. South Interior: Columbia and Kootenay; and Kettle-Okanagan and Similkameen.
  5. South Coast and Vancouver Island: South Coast; and Vancouver Island.

Links:
  1. Map of CLEVER Model 10-day Forecast of Discharges and Return Periods
  2. CLEVER Model Publications and Technical References.
  3. Map of 10-day Forecast of Daily Average Temperature and 24H Precipitation (10 page PDF file)
  4. Map of Current Streamflow Conditions for All Real-time Stations in BC
  5. Current Advisories and Flood Warnings
  6. Current and forecast streamflows
  7. Home of River Forecast Centre

Modeling Uncertainty and Disclaimer:
This forecast is derived from the CLEVER Model, a hydrologic model using third-party data as inputs. The data may be provisional and may include uncertainty and errors, and the model has its own limitations. This is the so-called modeling uncertainty. As such, the model forecast may also include errors and the actual observed discharges and water levels are different from the forecasts. It is also possible that the actual flow is higher than the forecast upper bound or lower than the forecast lower bound. Users of this forecast must accept all responsibility for their use and interpretation. Please click here for more information.